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An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable

One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas take new lines of enquiry and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And what is more when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing they can reshape an entire topic and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining polemical creative attack on how people in general and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics finance and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge) and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result Taleb concludes improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather it should inspire the opposite reaction. | An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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An Analysis of Friedrich Hayek's The Road to Serfdom

Friedrich Hayek’s 1944 Road to Serfdom is a classic of conservative economic argument. While undeniably a product of a specific time in global politics – which saw the threat of fascism from Nazi Germany and its allies beguilingly answered by the promises of socialism – Hayek’s carefully constructed argument is a fine example of the importance of good reasoning in critical thinking. Reasoning is the art of constructing good persuasive arguments by organizing one’s thoughts supporting one’s conclusions and considering counter-arguments along the way. The Road to Serfdom illustrates all these skills in action; Hayek’s argument was that while many assumed socialism to be the answer to totalitarian fascist regimes the opposite was true. Socialist government’s reliance on a large state centralised control and bureaucratic planning – he insisted – actually amounts to a different kind of totalitarianism. Freedom of choice Hayek continued is a central requirement of individual freedom and hence a centrally planned economy inevitably constrains freedom. Though many commentators have sought to counter Hayek’s arguments his reasoning skills won over many of the politicians who have shaped the present day most notably Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. | An Analysis of Friedrich Hayek's The Road to Serfdom

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An Analysis of Hannah Arendt's The Human Condition

Hannah Arendt’s 1958 The Human Condition was an impassioned philosophical reconsideration of the goals of being human. In its arguments about the kind of lives we should lead and the political engagement we should strive for Arendt’s interpretative skills come to the fore in a brilliant display of what high-level interpretation can achieve for critical thinking. Good interpretative thinkers are characterised by their ability to clarify meanings question accepted definitions and posit good clear definitions that allow their other critical thinking skills to take arguments deeper and further than most. In many ways The Human Condition is all about definitions. Arendt’s aim is to lay out an argument for political engagement and active participation in society as the highest goals of human life; and to this end she sets about defining a hierarchy of ways of living a “vita activa ” or active life. The book sets about distinguishing between our different activities under the categories of “labor” “work” and “action” – each of which Arendt carefully redefines as a different level of active engagement with the world. Following her clear and careful laying out of each word’s meaning it becomes hard to deny her argument for the life of “action” as the highest human goal. | An Analysis of Hannah Arendt's The Human Condition

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An Analysis of Homi K. Bhabha's The Location of Culture

Homi K. Bhabha’s 1994 The Location of Culture is one of the founding texts of the branch of literary theory called postcolonialism. While postcolonialism has many strands at its heart lies the question of interpreting and understanding encounters between the western colonial powers and the nations across the globe that they colonized. Colonization was not just an economic military or political process but one that radically affected culture and identity across the world. It is a field in which interpretation comes to the fore and much of its force depends on addressing the complex legacy of colonial encounters by careful sustained attention to the meaning of the traces that they left on colonized cultures. What Bhabha’s writing like so much postcolonial thought shows is that the arts of clarification and definition that underpin good interpretation are rarely the same as simplification. Indeed good interpretative clarification is often about pointing out and dividing the different kinds of complexity at play in a single process or term. For Bhabha the object is identity itself as expressed in the ideas colonial powers had about themselves. In his interpretation what at first seems to be the coherent set of ideas behind colonialism soon breaks down into a complex mass of shifting stances – yielding something much closer to postcolonial thought than a first glance at his sometimes dauntingly complex suggests. | An Analysis of Homi K. Bhabha's The Location of Culture

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An Analysis of Marcus Aurelius's Meditations

Despite being written between 170 and 180 Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations often resonates with modern readers because of its remarkable resemblance to a self-help book. Written as a series of personal notes in the last decade of his reign as Roman emperor the meditations were never intended for circulation. But they remain today among the classics of stoic philosophy – and as exquisite examples of problem-solving. Meditations sees a great leader engaged in solving one of the central problems of all philosophy: how to live a good life. Marcus Aurelius is quick to ask questions and generate solutions all of which lead him to a greater understanding of what a good life really is. He makes the decision that philosophy is an important tool we can use every day to help us understand and deal with the world. The best way to get to the bottom of a problem he records is to analyze its different aspects with care – this will help to ‘dissolve’ the issue. To keep our minds well balanced it is vital to keep our desire for the material and the sensual in check to avoid falling prey to negative behaviors like jealousy quarrelling and indulgence. Philosophy the Meditations show can also help us to understand other people’s problems and difficulties – acting as a continual spur to the consideration and resolution of problems wherever they arise. | An Analysis of Marcus Aurelius's Meditations

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An Analysis of Richard Dawkins's The Selfish Gene

Richard Dawkins provides excellent examples of his reasoning and interpretation skills in The Selfish Gene. His 1976 book is not a work of original research but instead a careful explanation of evolution combined with an argument for a particular interpretation of several aspects of evolution. Since Dawkins is building on other researchers’ work and writing for a general audience the central elements of good reasoning are vital to his book: producing a clear argument and presenting a persuasive case; organising an argument and supporting its conclusions. In doing this Dawkins also employs the crucial skill of interpretation: understanding what evidence means; clarifying terms; questioning definitions; giving clear definitions on which to build arguments. The strength of his reasoning and interpretative skills played a key part in the widespread acceptance of his argument for a gene-centred interpretation of natural selection and evolution – and in its history as a bestselling classic of science writing. | An Analysis of Richard Dawkins's The Selfish Gene

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An Analysis of Daniel Jonah Goldhagen's Hitler's Willing Executioners Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust

Daniel Goldhagen's study of the Holocaust offers conclusions that run directly counter to those reached by Christopher Browning whose book Ordinary Men is also the subject of a Macat analysis. As such the two analyses make possible some interesting critical thinking exercises focused on evaluation of the evidence used by the two historians. For Goldhagen a chief reason for German actions was not the mundane good comradeship stressed by Browning but a longstanding hatred of Jews and Judaism specific to Germany that dated back well into the previous century. Debating which historian is right which has made better use of the available evidence which has most successfully written objectively – and which advances the most secure interpretation of contested documents – forces students to think critically about one of the most important and (on the surface at least) incomprehensible events of the past century. | An Analysis of Daniel Jonah Goldhagen's Hitler's Willing Executioners Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust

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An Analysis of Natalie Zemon Davis's The Return of Martin Guerre

Few stories are more captivating than the one told by Natalie Zemon Davis in The Return of Martin Guerre. Basing her research on records of a bizarre court case that occurred in 16th-century France she uses the tale of a missing soldier – whose disappearance threatens the livelihood of his peasant wife – to explore complex social issues. Davis takes rich material – dramatic enough to have been the basis of two major films – and uses it to explore issues of identity women's role in peasant society the interior lives of the poor and the structure of village society all of them topics that had previously proved difficult for historians to grapple with. Davis displays fine qualities of reasoning throughout – not only in constructing her own narrative but also in persuading her readers of her point of view. Her work is also a fine example of good interpretation – practically every document in the case needs to be assessed for issues of meaning. | An Analysis of Natalie Zemon Davis's The Return of Martin Guerre

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An Analysis of Thomas Paine's Common Sense

Thomas Paine’s 1776 Common Sense has secured an unshakeable place as one of history’s most explosive and revolutionary books. A slim pamphlet published at the beginning of the American Revolution it was so widely read that it remains the all-time best selling book in US history. An impassioned argument for American independence and for democratic government Common Sense can claim to have helped change the face of the world more than almost any other book. But Paine’s pamphlet is also a masterclass in critical thinking demonstrating how the reasoned construction of arguments can be reinforced by literary skill and passion. Paine is perhaps more famous as a stylist than as a constructor of arguments but Common Sense marries the best elements of good reasoning to its polemic. Moving systematically from the origins of government through a criticism of monarchy and on to the possibilities for future democratic government in an independent America Paine neatly lays out a series of persuasive reasons to fight for independence and a new form of government. Indeed as the pamphlet’s title suggested to do so was nothing more than ‘common sense. ’ | An Analysis of Thomas Paine's Common Sense

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An Analysis of G.W.F. Hegel's Phenomenology of Spirit

Hegel’s 1807 Phenomenology of Spirit is renowned for being one of the most challenging and important books in Western philosophy. Above all it is famous for laying out a new approach to reasoning and philosophical argument an approach that has been credited with influencing Karl Marx Jean-Paul Sartre and many other key modern philosophers. That approach is the so-called “Hegelian dialectic” – an open-ended sequence of reasoning and argument in which contradictory concepts generate and are incorporated into a third more sophisticated concept. While the Phenomenology does not always clearly use this dialectical method – and it is famously one of the most difficult works of philosophy ever written – the Hegelian dialectic provides a perfect template for critical thinking reasoning skills. A hallmark of good reasoning in the construction of an argument and the searching out of answers must necessarily consider contradictory viewpoints or evidence. For Hegel contradiction is key: it is precisely what allows reasoning to progress. Only by incorporating and overcoming contradictions according to his method is it possible for thought to progress at all. While writing like Hegel might not be advisable thinking like him can help take your reasoning to the next level. | An Analysis of G. W. F. Hegel's Phenomenology of Spirit

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An Analysis of Frantz Fanon's Black Skin White Masks

Frantz Fanon’s explosive Black Skin White Masks is a merciless exposé of the psychological damage done by colonial rule across the world. Using Fanon’s incisive analytical abilities to expose the consequences of colonialism on the psyches of colonized peoples it is both a crucial text in post-colonial theory and a lesson in the power of analytical skills to reveal the realities that hide beneath the surface of things. Fanon was himself part of a colonized nation – Martinique – and grew up with the values and beliefs of French culture imposed upon him while remaining relegated to an inferior status in society. Qualifying as a psychiatrist in France before working in Algeria (a French colony subject to brutal repression) his own experiences granted him a sharp insight into the psychological problems associated with colonial rule. Like any good analytical thinker Fanon’s particular skill was in breaking things down and joining dots. His analysis of colonial rule exposed its implicit assumptions – and how they were replicated in colonised populations – allowing Fanon to unpick the hidden reasons behind his own conflicted psychological make up and those of his patients. Unflinchingly clear-sighted in doing so Black Skin White Masks remains a shocking read today. | An Analysis of Frantz Fanon's Black Skin White Masks

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An Analysis of Baruch Spinoza's Ethics

Baruch Spinoza’s Ethics is a dense masterpiece of sustained argumentative reasoning. It earned its place as one of the most important and influential books in Western philosophy by virtue of its uncompromisingly direct arguments about the nature of God the universe free will and human morals. Though it remains one of the densest and most challenging texts in the entire canon of Western philosophy Ethics is also famous for Spinoza’s unique approach to ordering and constructing its arguments. As its full title – Ethics Demonstrated in Geometrical Order – suggests Spinoza decided to use the rigorous format of mathematical-style propositions to lay out his arguments just as the Ancient Greek mathematician Euclid had used geometrical propositions to lay out the basic rules of geometry. In choosing such a systematic method Spinoza’s masterwork shows the crucial aspects of good reasoning skills being employed at the highest level. The key use of reasoning is the production of an argument that is well-organised supports its conclusions and proceeds logically towards its end. Just as a mathematician might demonstrate a geometrical proof Spinoza sought to lay out a comprehensive philosophy for human existence – an attempt that has influenced generations of philosophers since. | An Analysis of Baruch Spinoza's Ethics

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An Analysis of Abraham H. Maslow's A Theory of Human Motivation

US psychologist Abraham H. Maslow’s A Theory of Human Motivation is a classic of psychological research that helped change the field for good. Like many field-changing thinkers Maslow was not just a talented researcher he was also a creative thinker – able to see things from a new perspective and show them in a different light. At a time when psychology was dominated by two major schools of thought Maslow was able to forge a new third paradigm that remains influential today. Sigmund Freud’s psychoanalysis had developed the idea of understanding the mind through dialogue between patient and analyst. The behaviorism of Ivan Pavlov and John Watson had focused on comprehending the mind through behaviors that could be measured trained and changed. Maslow however generated new ideas forging what he called “positive” or “humanistic psychology”. His argument was that humans are psychologically motivated by a series of hierarchical needs starting with the most essential first. Maslow thought it important for the advancement of psychology to identify group and rank these needs in terms of priority. His belief in the value of this third way was important in leading those who studied psychology to redefine the discipline and so see it in new ways. | An Analysis of Abraham H. Maslow's A Theory of Human Motivation

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An Analysis of Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom

Milton Friedman was arguably the single most influential economist of the 20th-century. His influence particularly on conservative politics in America and Great Britain substantially helped – as both supporters and critics agree – to shape the global economy as it is today. Capitalism and Freedom (1962) is a passionate but carefully reasoned summary of Friedman’s philosophy of political and economic freedom and it has become perhaps his most directly influential work. Friedman’s argument focuses on the place of economic liberalism in society: in his view free markets and personal economic freedom are absolutely necessary for true political freedom to exist. Freedom for Friedman is the ultimate good in a society – the marker and aim of true civilisation. And crucially he argues real freedom is rarely aided by government. For Friedman indeed “the great advances of civilization whether in architecture or painting in science or literature in industry or agriculture have never come from centralized government”. Instead he argues they have always been produced by “minority views” flourishing in a social climate permitting variety and diversity. ” In successive chapters Friedman develops a well-structured line of reasoning emerging from this stance – leading him to some surprising conclusions that remain persuasive and influential more than 60 years on. | An Analysis of Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom

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An Analysis of Leon Festinger's A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance

Leon Festinger’s 1957 A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance is a key text in the history of psychology – one that made its author one of the most influential social psychologists of his time. It is also a prime example of how creative thinking and problem solving skills can come together to produce work that changes the way people look at questions for good. Strong creative thinkers are able to look at things from a new perspective often to the point of challenging the very frames in which those around them see things. Festinger was such a creative thinker leading what came to be known as the “cognitive revolution” in social psychology. When Festinger was carrying out his research the dominant school of thought – behaviorism – focused on outward behaviors and their effects. Festinger however turned his attention elsewhere looking at “cognition:” the mental processes behind behaviors. In the case of “cognitive dissonance” for example he hypothesized that apparently incomprehensible or illogical behaviors might be caused by a cognitive drive away from dissonance or internal contradiction. This perspective however raised a problem: how to examine and test out cognitive processes. Festinger’s book records the results of the psychological experiments he designed to solve that problem. The results helped prove the existence for what is now a fundamental theory in social psychology. | An Analysis of Leon Festinger's A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance

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An Analysis of Theodore Levitt's Marketing Myopia

Theodore Levitt’s 1960 article “Marketing Myopia” is a business classic that earned its author the nickname “the father of modern marketing”. It is also a beautiful demonstration of the problem solving skills that are crucial in so many areas of life – in business and beyond. The problem facing Levitt was the same problem that has confronted business after business for hundreds of years: how best to deal with slowing growth and eventual decline. Levitt studied many business empires – the railroads for instance – that at a certain point simply shrivelled up and shrank to almost nothing. How he asked could businesses avoid such failures? His approach and his solution comprise a concise demonstration of high-level problem solving at its best. Good problem solvers first identify what the problem is then isolate the best methodology for solving it. And as Levitt showed a dose of creative thinking also helps. Levitt’s insight was that falling sales are all about marketing and marketing is about knowing your real business. The railroads misunderstood their real market: they weren’t selling rail they were selling transport. If they had understood that they could have successfully taken advantage of new growth areas – truck haulage for instance – rather than futilely scrabbling to sell rail to a saturated market. | An Analysis of Theodore Levitt's Marketing Myopia

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An Analysis of Kenneth Waltz's Theory of International Politics

Kenneth Waltz’s 1979 Theory of International Politics is credited with bringing about a “scientific revolution” in the study of international relations – bringing the field into a new era of systematic study. The book is also a lesson in reasoning carefully and critically. Good reasoning is exemplified by arguments that move systematically through carefully organised stages taking into account opposing stances and ideas as they move towards a logical conclusion. Theory of International Politics might be a textbook example of how to go about structuring an argument in this way to produce a watertight case for a particular point of view. Waltz’s book begins by testing and critiquing earlier theories of international relations showing their strengths and weaknesses before moving on to argue for his own stance – what has since become known as “neorealism”. His aim was “to construct a theory of international politics that remedies the defects of present theories. ” And this is precisely what he did; by showing the shortcomings of the prevalent theories of international relations Waltz was then able to import insights from sociology to create a more comprehensive and realistic theory that took full account of the strengths of old schemas while also remedying their weaknesses – reasoning out a new theory in the process. | An Analysis of Kenneth Waltz's Theory of International Politics

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An Analysis of G.E.M. Anscombe's Modern Moral Philosophy

Elizabeth Anscombe’s 1958 essay “Modern Moral Philosophy” is a cutting intervention in modern philosophy that shows the full power of good evaluative and analytical critical thinking skills. Though only 16 pages long Anscombe’s paper set out to do nothing less than reform the entire field of modern moral philosophy – something that could only be done by carefully examining the existing arguments of the giants of the field. To do this she deployed the central skills of evaluation and analysis. In critical thinking analysis helps understand the sequence and features of arguments: it asks what reasons these arguments produce what implicit reasons and assumptions they rely on what conclusions they arrive at. Evaluation involves judging whether or not the arguments are strong enough to sustain their conclusions: it asks how acceptable adequate and relevant the reasons given are and whether or not the conclusions drawn from them are really valid. In “Modern Moral Philosophy ” Anscombe dispassionately turns these skills on figures that have dominated moral philosophy since the 18th-century revealing the underlying assumptions of their work their weaknesses and strengths and showing that in many ways the supposed differences between their arguments are actually negligible. A brilliantly incisive piece “Modern Moral Philosophy” radically affected its field remaining required – and controversial – reading today. | An Analysis of G. E. M. Anscombe's Modern Moral Philosophy

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An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s 1974 paper ‘Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’ is a landmark in the history of psychology. Though a mere seven pages long it has helped reshape the study of human rationality and had a particular impact on economics – where Tversky and Kahneman’s work helped shape the entirely new sub discipline of ‘behavioral economics. ’ The paper investigates human decision-making specifically what human brains tend to do when we are forced to deal with uncertainty or complexity. Based on experiments carried out with volunteers Tversky and Kahneman discovered that humans make predictable errors of judgement when forced to deal with ambiguous evidence or make challenging decisions. These errors stem from ‘heuristics’ and ‘biases’ – mental shortcuts and assumptions that allow us to make swift automatic decisions often usefully and correctly but occasionally to our detriment. The paper’s huge influence is due in no small part to its masterful use of high-level interpretative and analytical skills – expressed in Tversky and Kahneman’s concise and clear definitions of the basic heuristics and biases they discovered. Still providing the foundations of new work in the field 40 years later the two psychologists’ definitions are a model of how good interpretation underpins incisive critical thinking. | An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases

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An Analysis of Burton G. Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street

Burton Malkiel’s 1973 A Random Walk Down Wall Street was an explosive contribution to debates about how to reap a good return on investing in stocks and shares. Reissued and updated many times since Malkiel’s text remains an indispensable contribution to the world of investment strategy – one that continues to cause controversy among investment professionals today. At the book’s heart lies a simple question of evaluation: just how successful are investment experts? The financial world was and is full of people who claim to have the knowledge and expertise to outperform the markets and produce larger gains for investors as a result of their knowledge. But how successful Malkiel asked are they really? Via careful evaluations of performance – looking at those who invested via ‘technical analysis’ and ‘fundamental analysis’ – he was able to challenge the adequacy of many of the claims made for analysts’ success. Malkiel found the major active investment strategies to be significantly flawed. Where actively managed funds posted big gains one year they seemingly inevitably posted below average gains in succeeding years. By evaluating the figures over the medium and long term indeed Malkiel discovered that actively-managed funds did far worse on average than those that passively followed the general market index. Though many investment professionals still argue against Malkiel’s influential findings his exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the argument for believing investors’ claims provides strong evidence that his own passive strategy wins out overall. | An Analysis of Burton G. Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street

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An Analysis of Keith Thomas's Religion and the Decline of Magic

Keith Thomas's classic study of all forms of popular belief has been influential for so long now that it is difficult to remember how revolutionary it seemed when it first appeared. By publishing Religion and the Decline of Magic Thomas became the first serious scholar to attempt to synthesize the full range of popular thought about the occult and the supernatural studying its influence across Europe over several centuries. At root his book can be seen as a superb exercise in problem-solving: one that actually established magic as a historical problem worthy of investigation. Thomas asked productive questions not least challenging the prevailing assumption that folk belief was unworthy of serious scholarly attention and his work usefully reframed the existing debate in much broader terms allowing for more extensive exploration of correlations not only between different sorts of popular belief but also between popular belief and state religion. It was this that allowed Thomas to reach his famous conclusion that the advent of Protestantism – which drove out much of the superstition that characterised the Catholicism of the period – created a vacuum filled by other forms of belief; for example Catholic priests had once blessed their crops but Protestants refused to do so. That left farmers looking for other ways of ensuring a good harvest. It was this Thomas argues that explains the survival of what we now think of as magic at a time such beliefs might have been expected to decline – at least until science arose to offer alternative paradigms. | An Analysis of Keith Thomas's Religion and the Decline of Magic

GBP 6.50

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An Analysis of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan The Impact of the Highly Improbable

An Analysis of Friedrich Hayek's The Road to Serfdom

An Analysis of Hannah Arendt's The Human Condition

An Analysis of Homi K. Bhabha's The Location of Culture

An Analysis of Marcus Aurelius's Meditations

An Analysis of Richard Dawkins's The Selfish Gene

An Analysis of Daniel Jonah Goldhagen's Hitler's Willing Executioners Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust

An Analysis of Natalie Zemon Davis's The Return of Martin Guerre

An Analysis of Thomas Paine's Common Sense

An Analysis of G.W.F. Hegel's Phenomenology of Spirit

An Analysis of Frantz Fanon's Black Skin White Masks

An Analysis of Baruch Spinoza's Ethics

An Analysis of Abraham H. Maslow's A Theory of Human Motivation

An Analysis of Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom

An Analysis of Leon Festinger's A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance

An Analysis of Theodore Levitt's Marketing Myopia

An Analysis of Kenneth Waltz's Theory of International Politics

An Analysis of G.E.M. Anscombe's Modern Moral Philosophy

An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases

An Analysis of Burton G. Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street

An Analysis of Keith Thomas's Religion and the Decline of Magic

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