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An Analysis of Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis War Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century

An Analysis of Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis War Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century

Few historians can claim to have undertaken historical analysis on as grand a scale as Geoffrey Parker in his 2013 work Global Crisis: War Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century. It is a doorstop of a book that surveys the ‘general crisis of the 17th century ’ shows that it was experienced practically throughout the world and was not merely a European phenomenon and links it to the impact of climate change in the form of the advent of a cold period known as the ‘Little Ice Age. ’ Parker’s triumph is made possible by the deployment of formidable critical thinking skills – reasoning to construct an engaging overall argument from very disparate material and analysis to re-examine and understand the plethora of complex secondary sources on which his book is built. In critical thinking analysis is all about understanding the features and structures of argument: how given reasons lead to conclusions and what kinds of implicit reasons and assumptions are being used. Historical analysis applies the same skills to the fabric of history asking how given chains of events occur how different reasons and factors interact and so on. Parker though takes things further than most in his quest to understand the meaning of a century’s-worth of turbulence spread across the whole globe. Beginning by breaking down the evidence for significant climatic cooling in the 17th-century (due to decreased solar activity) he moves on to detailed study of the effects the cooling had on societies and regimes across the world. From this detailed spadework he constructs a persuasive argument that accounts for the different ways in which the effects of climate change played out across the century – an argument with profound implications for a future likely to see serious climate change of its own. | An Analysis of Geoffrey Parker's Global Crisis War Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century

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An Analysis of Burton G. Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street

An Analysis of Burton G. Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street

Burton Malkiel’s 1973 A Random Walk Down Wall Street was an explosive contribution to debates about how to reap a good return on investing in stocks and shares. Reissued and updated many times since Malkiel’s text remains an indispensable contribution to the world of investment strategy – one that continues to cause controversy among investment professionals today. At the book’s heart lies a simple question of evaluation: just how successful are investment experts? The financial world was and is full of people who claim to have the knowledge and expertise to outperform the markets and produce larger gains for investors as a result of their knowledge. But how successful Malkiel asked are they really? Via careful evaluations of performance – looking at those who invested via ‘technical analysis’ and ‘fundamental analysis’ – he was able to challenge the adequacy of many of the claims made for analysts’ success. Malkiel found the major active investment strategies to be significantly flawed. Where actively managed funds posted big gains one year they seemingly inevitably posted below average gains in succeeding years. By evaluating the figures over the medium and long term indeed Malkiel discovered that actively-managed funds did far worse on average than those that passively followed the general market index. Though many investment professionals still argue against Malkiel’s influential findings his exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the argument for believing investors’ claims provides strong evidence that his own passive strategy wins out overall. | An Analysis of Burton G. Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street

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An Analysis of Friedrich Hayek's The Road to Serfdom

An Analysis of Friedrich Hayek's The Road to Serfdom

Friedrich Hayek’s 1944 Road to Serfdom is a classic of conservative economic argument. While undeniably a product of a specific time in global politics – which saw the threat of fascism from Nazi Germany and its allies beguilingly answered by the promises of socialism – Hayek’s carefully constructed argument is a fine example of the importance of good reasoning in critical thinking. Reasoning is the art of constructing good persuasive arguments by organizing one’s thoughts supporting one’s conclusions and considering counter-arguments along the way. The Road to Serfdom illustrates all these skills in action; Hayek’s argument was that while many assumed socialism to be the answer to totalitarian fascist regimes the opposite was true. Socialist government’s reliance on a large state centralised control and bureaucratic planning – he insisted – actually amounts to a different kind of totalitarianism. Freedom of choice Hayek continued is a central requirement of individual freedom and hence a centrally planned economy inevitably constrains freedom. Though many commentators have sought to counter Hayek’s arguments his reasoning skills won over many of the politicians who have shaped the present day most notably Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. | An Analysis of Friedrich Hayek's The Road to Serfdom

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An Analysis of Bernard Bailyn's The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution

An Analysis of Bernard Bailyn's The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution

Historians of the American Revolution had always seen the struggle for independence either as a conflict sparked by heavyweight ideology or as a war between opposing social groups acting out of self-interest. In The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution Bernard Bailyn begged to differ re-examining familiar evidence to establish new connections that in turn allowed him to generate fresh explanations. His influential reconceptualizing of the underlying reasons for America's independence drive focused instead on pamphleteering – and specifically on the actions of an influential group of ‘conspirators’ who identified and were determined to protect a particularly American set of values. For Bailyn these ideas could indeed be traced back to the ferment of the English Civil War – stemming from radical pamphleteers whose anti-authoritarian ideas crossed the Atlantic and embedded themselves in colonial ideology. Bailyn's thesis helps to explain the Revolution's success by pointing out how deep-rooted its founding ideas were; the Founding Fathers may have been reading Locke but the men they led were inspired by shorter pithier and altogether far more radical works. Only by understanding this Bailyn argues can we understand the passion and determination that allowed the rebel American states to defeat a global superpower. | An Analysis of Bernard Bailyn's The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution

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An Analysis of Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom

An Analysis of Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom

Milton Friedman was arguably the single most influential economist of the 20th-century. His influence particularly on conservative politics in America and Great Britain substantially helped – as both supporters and critics agree – to shape the global economy as it is today. Capitalism and Freedom (1962) is a passionate but carefully reasoned summary of Friedman’s philosophy of political and economic freedom and it has become perhaps his most directly influential work. Friedman’s argument focuses on the place of economic liberalism in society: in his view free markets and personal economic freedom are absolutely necessary for true political freedom to exist. Freedom for Friedman is the ultimate good in a society – the marker and aim of true civilisation. And crucially he argues real freedom is rarely aided by government. For Friedman indeed “the great advances of civilization whether in architecture or painting in science or literature in industry or agriculture have never come from centralized government”. Instead he argues they have always been produced by “minority views” flourishing in a social climate permitting variety and diversity. ” In successive chapters Friedman develops a well-structured line of reasoning emerging from this stance – leading him to some surprising conclusions that remain persuasive and influential more than 60 years on. | An Analysis of Milton Friedman's Capitalism and Freedom

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An Analysis of Henry Kissinger's World Order Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History

An Analysis of Henry Kissinger's World Order Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History

Henry Kissinger’s 2014 book World Order: Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History not only offers a summary of thinking developed throughout a long and highly influential career–it is also an intervention in international relations theory by one of the most famous statesmen of the twentieth century. Kissinger initially trained as a university professor before becoming Secretary of State to President Richard Nixon in 1973 – a position in which he both won the Nobel Peace Prize and was accused of war crimes by protesters against American military actions in Vietnam. While a controversial figure Kissinger is widely agreed to have a unique level of practical and theoretical expertise in politics and international relations – and World Order is the culmination of a lifetime’s experience of work in those fields. The product of a master of the critical thinking skill of interpretation World Order takes on the challenge of defining the worldviews at play in global politics today. Clarifying precisely what is meant by the different notions of ‘order’ imagined by nations across the world as Kissinger does highlights the challenges of world politics and sharpens the focus on efforts to make surmounting these divisions possible. While Kissinger’s own reputation will likely remain equivocal there is no doubting the interpretative skills he displays in this engaging and illuminating text. | An Analysis of Henry Kissinger's World Order Reflections on the Character of Nations and the Course of History

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An Analysis of G.W.F. Hegel's Phenomenology of Spirit

An Analysis of G.W.F. Hegel's Phenomenology of Spirit

Hegel’s 1807 Phenomenology of Spirit is renowned for being one of the most challenging and important books in Western philosophy. Above all it is famous for laying out a new approach to reasoning and philosophical argument an approach that has been credited with influencing Karl Marx Jean-Paul Sartre and many other key modern philosophers. That approach is the so-called “Hegelian dialectic” – an open-ended sequence of reasoning and argument in which contradictory concepts generate and are incorporated into a third more sophisticated concept. While the Phenomenology does not always clearly use this dialectical method – and it is famously one of the most difficult works of philosophy ever written – the Hegelian dialectic provides a perfect template for critical thinking reasoning skills. A hallmark of good reasoning in the construction of an argument and the searching out of answers must necessarily consider contradictory viewpoints or evidence. For Hegel contradiction is key: it is precisely what allows reasoning to progress. Only by incorporating and overcoming contradictions according to his method is it possible for thought to progress at all. While writing like Hegel might not be advisable thinking like him can help take your reasoning to the next level. | An Analysis of G. W. F. Hegel's Phenomenology of Spirit

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An Analysis of G.E.M. Anscombe's Modern Moral Philosophy

An Analysis of G.E.M. Anscombe's Modern Moral Philosophy

Elizabeth Anscombe’s 1958 essay “Modern Moral Philosophy” is a cutting intervention in modern philosophy that shows the full power of good evaluative and analytical critical thinking skills. Though only 16 pages long Anscombe’s paper set out to do nothing less than reform the entire field of modern moral philosophy – something that could only be done by carefully examining the existing arguments of the giants of the field. To do this she deployed the central skills of evaluation and analysis. In critical thinking analysis helps understand the sequence and features of arguments: it asks what reasons these arguments produce what implicit reasons and assumptions they rely on what conclusions they arrive at. Evaluation involves judging whether or not the arguments are strong enough to sustain their conclusions: it asks how acceptable adequate and relevant the reasons given are and whether or not the conclusions drawn from them are really valid. In “Modern Moral Philosophy ” Anscombe dispassionately turns these skills on figures that have dominated moral philosophy since the 18th-century revealing the underlying assumptions of their work their weaknesses and strengths and showing that in many ways the supposed differences between their arguments are actually negligible. A brilliantly incisive piece “Modern Moral Philosophy” radically affected its field remaining required – and controversial – reading today. | An Analysis of G. E. M. Anscombe's Modern Moral Philosophy

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An Analysis of Samuel P. Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

An Analysis of Samuel P. Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

The end of the Cold War which occurred early in the 1990s brought joy and freedom to millions. But it posed a difficult question to the world's governments and to the academics who studied them: how would world order be remade in an age no longer dominated by the competing ideologies of capitalism and communism? Samuel P. Huntington was one of the many political scientists who responded to this challenge by conceiving works that attempted to predict the ways in which conflict might play out in the 21st century and in The Clash of Civilizations he suggested that a new kind of conflict one centred on cultural identity would become the new focus of international relations. Huntington's theories greeted with scepticism when his book first appeared in the 1990s acquired new resonance after 9/11. The Clash of Civilizations is now one of the most widely-set and read works of political theory in US universities; Huntington's theories have also had a measurable impact on American policy. In large part this is a product of his problem-solving skills. Clash is a monument to its author's ability to generate and evaluate alternative possibilities and to make sound decisions between them. Huntington's view that international politics after the Cold War would be neither peaceful nor liberal nor cooperative ran counter to the predictions of almost all of his peers yet his position – the product of an unusual ability to redefine an issue so as to see it in new ways – has been largely vindicated by events ever since. | An Analysis of Samuel P. Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order

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